The spiffy prosecutor stood and smiled as he prepared for opening arguments against Cletus Biffman, a man accused of a hate crime for murdering an open homosexual three weeks prior. Jay Comfort had been the lead prosecutor for several months and this was his first widely publicized case. His new assistant, Curt Camryn was a former teen idol who had dedicated the past ten years of his life to getting bad guys off the street since leaving Hollywood. Mr. Comfort began his arguments to the judge and grand jury.
"The victim Charles Danforth was a well know activist for gay rights here in New York City. He was found dead with a stab wound to the chest on 43rd street just one month ago. Less than one week later, our diligent police detectives picked up Mr. Biffman just two blocks from the scene of the crime. Mr. Biffman openly displayed a tattoo on his chest that reads "Kill All Fags."" To the surprise of the judge and jury, the dashing prosecutor then sat down and smiled.
The judge spoke. "Um, Mr. Comfort. Do you have anything else to add?"
Surprised, Jay rose slowly and responded. "Such as?"
"Well, how about some evidence?"
Startled, the prosecutor looked to his sidekick and they began murmuring together frantically. He then rose and spoke again.
"Well, Your Honor, we believe the case is self evident. Not only did Mr. Biffman openly display such a message across his chest, but he was only a few blocks away from where the crime took place. In addition to that, Your Honor, we did a recent poll of the citizens of our good city, and over 80% believe that Mr. Biffman is the perpetrator of the crime." He then smiled and sat once again.
"Yes, well while I appreciate the fact that people may believe in Mr. Biffman's guilt, isn't it true that he was arrested in a very public display with the Police telling the newspapers "we've got our man?" In fact, that was the exact headline in three major newspapers just two days ago, was it not?"
"Well, yes your honor. And just think of how dismayed and upset the people will be if he is not locked up for this."
"Perhaps they will be dismayed and upset, but that still isn't evidence that he actually committed this crime, is it? I mean, do you have anything concrete here?"
Again, shuffling of papers and frantic, mumbled discussions went on for a minute before the prosecutor spoke again.
"Your honor, Mr. Biffman has been known to make anti-gay slurs many times in the past. But, I'd like to make this even more clear."
"Yes, please do." the judge responded.
"Mr. Biffman either committed this crime, or he did not commit it. We can agree on that much, right?"
"Where are you going with this?"
"With only two possibilities at hand, we can start with the reasonable assumption that there is a 50% chance he is guilty of this crime. Once we understand that, we can then add in the facts of Mr. Biffman's tattoo, his proximity to the crime scene, his known anti-gay slurs and the public opinion to arrive at a 93.4% likelyhood that he is indeed the killer."
The judge stared back blankly, prompting the prosecutor to continue.
"AND, Your Honor, just think of the peace of mind the people will have when they know that a scourge like Mr. Biffman is taken off the streets for good. I'd also like to quote a former Police Commissioner who stated clearly that "people with hate filled tattoos are no good, and will probably end up in jail for something or another anyway."
After a long pause, the judge spoke.
"So let me get this straight. You want us to lock up a man because it will give people peace of mind, and because some former police commissioner once said something that happens to seem relevant now. In addition, you are arguing that there's more than a 90% chance of his guilt based on starting with a 50% chance of his guilt because he either did it or didn't? Couldn't we apply that same logic and say that there must be a 50% chance that either you or I committed this crime too?"
"Please Your Honor, let's not make a mockery of things here. Of course you or I didn't do this. Nobody believes we would have ever done such a thing."
"So, because people believe it or were led to believe it, you surmise that the likelyhood starts at 50% and goes up with every other factor worked into the equation."
"It's simple mathematics. It is irrefutable scientific proof. He's our man."
Jay and Curt sat and smiled at the grand jury. They had to see the obvious, didn't they?
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